After two hot years driven by e-commerce and disruption in sea freight, the air-cargo market in 2025 is slowing as supply and demand gradually normalize, belly-capacity (passenger-aircraft freight space) recovers and trade policies fluctuate. For Vietnamese companies exporting high-value goods, this is the time to re-calculate the \u201csea-air mix\u201d to optimize cost, time and shipment certainty.<\/p>\n
Airlines and analysts have lowered growth expectations after the 2023-24 \u201cbull run\u201d, as demand is held back by inflation, tariff changes and cautious consumer sentiment. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the growth momentum for air-cargo volumes decelerated in Q1 2025; on the supply side, belly-capacity continues to widen as passenger networks recover, thereby pushing back the \u201ctight-space\u201d environment seen in previous years.<\/p>\n
From a market viewpoint, Xeneta forecasts global air-cargo volume growth in 2025 at around 4-6\u2009%, roughly matching or only marginally above capacity growth (estimated 3-5\u2009%). This scenario means the market will be less tight, increasing the negotiating power of shippers\u2014especially on routes where passenger travel has already recovered.<\/p>\n
A notable variable is the \u201cde minimis\u201d and tax policy for low-value parcels imported into the US\u2014previously a major driver of the e-commerce-fueled air-cargo surge. With some preferential treatment being tightened, e-commerce flows China\u2192US have dropped sharply, forcing airlines and retailers to re-route, or even redirect part of the volume to sea freight; this in turn eases pressure on trans-Pacific air-cargo capacity.<\/p>\n
When considering a sea-air mix, shippers should examine three axes: price, time and risk.
\n(1) Price threshold: if sea-freight rates spike due to a geopolitical event, the air component of the mix may be expanded temporarily.
\n(2) Time threshold: for seasonal fashion, new-launch electronics, pharmaceuticals with cold-chain needs, sea-air can \u201ccut half the leg\u201d of sea journey while still being cheaper than full air.
\n(3) Risk threshold: when ocean-freight schedules are uncertain, using air for last-leg protection can preserve delivery commitments.<\/p>\n
With supply growing faster than demand, average air-freight rates and yields (revenue per tonne-kilometre) are under pressure\u2014especially on Asia\u2013US routes which are highly sensitive to retail cycles. Nonetheless, the market still sees \u201clocal jumps\u201d: e.g., tension in the Red Sea \/ Suez Canal can cause some freight to revert to air on certain routes when ocean chains detour or vessel schedules are disrupted. This creates short-term \u201chot spots\u201d in pricing on a weekly\/regional basis, forcing shippers to monitor booking windows closely.<\/p>\n
Choose a reliable transit hub: hubs such as Doha (DOH), Incheon (ICN) and Hong Kong (HKG) currently have high flight frequencies and strong connectivity with ASEAN and North America\/Europe. Routing via a stable hub helps control bottlenecks, especially when the sea route faces geopolitical risk or channel restrictions. For high-tech \/ fast-fashion goods, you can ship by sea to an Asian hub \u2014 then by air to America\/Europe in periods of market \u201cspike\u201d.<\/p>\n
After the \u201cbull run\u201d, air cargo in 2025 is cooling but not \u201cfreezing\u201d: demand remains modestly positive, while capacity is sometimes expanding, sometimes tightening depending on aircraft-delivery schedules and policy. Vietnamese exporters should build their own sea-air \u201cplaybook\u201d for each product group, updated quarterly based on yield, seasonal demand windows and sea-route risk \u2014 so they decide based on data: price threshold, time threshold, risk threshold. When air is used as a strategic lever (at the right time, for the right SKU, via the right hub), the supply-chain becomes both flexible to disruption and protective of margin in the new \u201cnormal\u201d era of global logistics.<\/p>\n
Source: https:\/\/vlr.vn\/air-cargo-2025-ha-nhiet-sau-bull-run-thuong-mai-dien-tu-24005.html<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sau hai n\u0103m \u201cn\u00f3ng\u201d v\u00ec th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed v\u00e0 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i bi\u1ec3n, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a n\u0103m 2025 \u0111ang ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i khi cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f3a, n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c khoang d\u01b0\u1edbi t\u1eeb m\u00e1y bay h\u00e0nh kh\u00e1ch ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng. V\u1edbi c\u00e1c doanh…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1868,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1867","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tin-thi-truong"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/agconsolidation.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1867","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/agconsolidation.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/agconsolidation.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agconsolidation.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agconsolidation.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1867"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/agconsolidation.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1867\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agconsolidation.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1868"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/agconsolidation.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1867"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agconsolidation.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1867"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agconsolidation.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1867"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}